Uncertain Future of Opposition Party after Merging

While the date of parliamentarian election is approaching, there is still a poor sign for this opposition leader in returning to Cambodia to prepare and join the election. Ministry of Interior on 28 September 2012 signed official endorsement recognizing Sam Rainsy as the leader of new political party, Cambodian National Rescue Party. This new party has been formed by the emerging of Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and Human Rights Party (HRP). SRP and HRP announced their agreement to merge the two parties into one on 17 July 2012 in Manila, Philippine. Be noted that SRP and HRP are holding 26 and 3 parliamentary seats respectively amongst 123 of the total seats. The two parties believe to achieve a great achievement in the next parliamentarian election in July next year.

However the Prime Minister Hun Sen, who is the vice-president of Cambodian People Party (CPP) standing as permanent candidate as prime minister, claimed that he has no fear with the merging among these opposition parties by saying that it is the storm in the jar. In fact, this forming really draws his attention, otherwise he might not had mentioned and leave any message relevance to this. Additionally, he promised to step down if he loses the election next year-it is assumed that the prime minister is strongly confident to win the next election, while the opposition is strongly accusing the election had been conducted in an unjustifiably way.

The opposition leader, who is staying exile escaping from the imprisonment executed by the court, is calling for the reform of national election committee accusing of having committed unfair process with political influence from the ruling party. The two major opposition parties used to threaten to consider boycotting the general election next year, but the ruling party responded that it would be a chance for other political parties to win the seat in the parliament. However, the ruling party itself might understand that this is quite a threat in which the boycotting could drag the attention of international community to take action for political interference, and the oppositions parties themselves might also know how much it will face with a huge lose if it is the fact. It is quite sure that the boycott will be resulted nothing to the opposition parties, but they aim to release their intention to do so in order to call for international community to urge the electoral system reform in Cambodia. Interviewed by Australian radio, the opposition leader expects the help from international community leaders including US, when the president Barak Obama comes to Cambodia to join ASEAN-U.S. summit, and Australian government, which is one of the biggest donors, to put pressure on Cambodian government to reform election system. He also pointed out that the main reform should be made within the National Election Committee which had performed their role of being partial and political tool for the ruling party.

In 2005, Sam Rainsy was sentenced to 18 months in jail for defamation conviction by the court. In February 2006-two years before national election in 2008 and one month before donor meeting in March-he was granted with Royal Pardon by the king at the request of Cambodian prime minister. By the way, it was also believed that there must be a secret political promise between the opposition and the ruling party at that time in order to allow the opposition party leader to return to Cambodia to prepare for and join the election in 2008. On 27 January 2010, Svay Rieng court of first instant sentenced him to 2 years in jail for the conviction of racial incitement and the destruction of demarcation post. On 23 September 2010, he received additional sentence to 10 more years in jail for the conviction of producing forgery map and disinformation. Totally, he is now baring a 12 years term in jail and has always been threaten to arrest if he returns to Cambodia.

As mentioned earlier, the opposition leader hopes for the international pressure on the Cambodian government rather than political promise for his expectation to return to Cambodia after ASEAN Summit. The hope of international pressure from US and Australian governments somehow is strong and effective, if the tendency of Cambodian government is with these two giant countries, but it would be not because Cambodia has chosen China for its closed friend. Anyway, it is hoped that the regard of Cambodian government toward the U.S at this moment is likely to be more effective than the past, because Cambodia is seeking to burst bilateral trade between the two nations.

Still, there is no clear sign showing that Sam Rainsy will be able to return to Cambodia to join the election in 2013. Even if he could return, it seems to be too late for him to prepare himself for election campaign. Moreover, while he was staying exile abroad, he has not been able to build more credit with his political popularity with Cambodian people. But the merging of the opposition party and assigning Kem Sokha, who is the former president of Human Rights party, as vice president of the new party is one of the defensive strategy of Sam Rainsy party. The merging came close to the date of the general election and while there is poor sign of returning of Sam Rainsy party leader to Cambodia. This uncertainty will give the opposition party less hope in receiving good result of parliamentarian election in the next mandate.

Nop Virak, Student from University of Cambodia

Phone: +85589 861965

E-mail: viraknop@gmail.com